The three mismatched Democrats, meanwhile, all represent states Trump won solidly both times. All three of these Democrats survived the Trump midterms of , even as several of their red-state Democratic colleagues went down to defeat amid a strong year for Democrats nationally.
But these seats will next be on the ballot in , a presidential year. That was a plausible path to victory during the Obama years and before, but in the two presidential cycles since, only one senator, Collins, has managed to pull this off.
The overall takeaway is that the three Trump state Democrats will all start their races as deep underdogs if they run again. Meanwhile, one Biden-state Republican is safe until The next tier of vulnerable senators represents states that their own presidential candidate just narrowly won. There are only two such Republicans: Sens. Expanding the definition slightly, to a 3.
A bigger shift, or unique circumstances specific to the candidates, could also put other races in play. But could be an utter debacle for Democrats in the Senate if the election goes poorly for them. Meanwhile, Rick Scott is the only Republican in a close state up that year. Coalitions shift over time, and future elections could bring demographic changes few are yet anticipating. The Senate map for them looked rough on paper in , but they walked away from that presidential year netting two seats.
But the structural disadvantage appears deep and real — it means Democrats, with their current coalition, have to clear a higher bar to win even a small majority. Click here for more information about Senate race ratings.
The previous two Senate elections—held in and —were both decided by 2. In , Mark Kelly D defeated incumbent Sen. Martha McSally R in a special election [12] , In , Kyrsten Sinema defeated McSally, The two most recent presidential elections in Arizona were similarly close. Trump defeated Hillary Clinton D in the presidential election by 3. At the start of the election cycle, Inside Elections rated this state Battleground Democratic. In , Rick Scott R defeated incumbent Sen.
Bill Nelson D by 0. In , incumbent Marco Rubio won re-election by a margin of 7. The two most recent presidential elections in Florida were both decided by less than 4 percentage points. Trump defeated Hillary Clinton D in the presidential election by 1. At the start of the election cycle, Inside Elections rated this state Battleground Republican.
The two Senate elections held in Georgia in —with runoffs taking place in January —were both decided by 2 percentage points or fewer. Jon Ossoff D defeated incumbent Sen. David Perdue R by 1. Raphael Warnock D defeated incumbent Sen. Kelly Loeffler R in a special election by 2 percentage points, In , incumbent Sen. Johnny Isakson R won re-election by a margin of Trump defeated Hillary Clinton D in the presidential election by 5.
The two preceding Senate elections were both decided by 5 percentage points or fewer. In , Jacky Rosen defeated incumbent Sen. Dean Heller R by 5 percentage points. The two most recent presidential elections in Nevada were similarly close. Hillary Clinton D defeated Trump in the presidential election by 2. The two preceding Senate elections were split in competitiveness.
The two most recent presidential elections in Nevada were similarly split. Hillary Clinton D defeated Trump in the presidential election by 0. Incumbent Sen. Richard Burr R is not seeking re-election, making this an open seat race. Thom Tillis defeated Cal Cunningham D by 1. In , Burr won re-eelction by 5. The two most recent presidential elections in North Carolina were both decided by less than 4 percentage points.
Pat Toomey R is not seeking re-election, making this an open seat race. In , incumbent Bob Casey Jr. D defeated Lou Barletta R by The two most recent presidential elections were both decided by less than 2 percentage points. Trump defeated Hillary Clinton D in the presidential election by 0. Tammy Baldwin defeated Leah Vukmir R by The two most recent presidential elections were both decided by less than 1 percentage point.
This section includes commentary on the U. Senate elections, including discussion of partisan balance, competitiveness, and national policy issues. Whatever else is going on, midterm elections most notably operate as referenda on the president of the United States. If the chief magistrate is unpopular, the party controlling the White House always loses ground, sometimes dramatically.
In Obama was at 45 percent; and in Trump was at 42 percent. That, too, would reduce the odds of Republican tsunami. History is, of course, a guide that presidents typically lose seats in their first midterm elections, at least in the House, but also often in the Senate.
Among Democrats, you have to go back to Kennedy to find a Democrat who actually gained Senate seats in his first midterm. But even if Democrats lose seats, it seems unlikely it would be anywhere near the number that Obama 6 seats or Clinton 8 seats saw in their first midterm election.
Ultimately, we see these Senate races track closely with the presidential results in the state. So based solely on that, Democrats would be winning back seats in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, but when it's not a presidential cycle, that's not always the case either.
Indeed, was actually a Democratic-leaning year, with Biden winning the national popular vote by 4. That could make these retirements less of a blow to Republicans than they first appear. And in Ohio specifically, Republicans still look like heavy favorites. Even in the Democratic-leaning environment of , Trump won Ohio by 8 percentage points, implying that its true partisan lean is probably even more Republican-leaning. Ohio is simply not the quintessential swing state it once was; dating back to the election cycle, Democrats have won just one out of 14 statewide contests in Ohio — and that was a popular incumbent Sen.
Sherrod Brown running in a blue-wave election year If Senate Republicans seem conservative now, just wait until next year. The midterms could usher in a wave of full-spectrum MAGA supporters who would turn the GOP conference an even deeper shade of red — and make the Senate a lot more like the fractious House.
In the five states where Republican senators are retiring, the primary election fields to succeed them are crowded with Donald Trump supporters who have made loyalty to the former president a cornerstone of their campaigns. The three top candidates to succeed Sen.
Richard Burr in North Carolina have all denounced his vote to convict Trump in his last impeachment trial. In Pennsylvania, the four leading candidates to succeed Sen. The absolute fealty to Trump is only part of the change this class of candidates would herald. There are institutional implications for the Senate as well.
Rob Portman helped broker? Six of the top GOP candidates vying to replace him have rejected it. Decisions get made long before voters are paying attention that function as early indicators of what sort of national political environment we are likely to have come Election Day.
And the biggest and most important of those decisions is whether the party's strongest nominees or those perceived as the strongest get into the race. Typically those big gets have more to lose by, well, losing a race than a newcomer who is totally fine taking a flyer on a race -- and in a national environment -- they might not win.
Where should you look in this election to see what candidate recruitment is telling us? The most obvious one is in New Hampshire, where Republicans are desperately hoping that Gov.
Chris Sununu R opts for the race against Sen. Maggie Hassan D. Sununu said recently that it "really could be until the winter" before he makes a decision. If Sununu says no, not only will it lessen Republican chances of beating Hassan, but it will also send a signal that the political winds are not favorable for the GOP. While Sununu's decision is the big one, some Republicans hold out hope for a Senate bid by Arizona Gov.
Doug Ducey against Sen. Mark Kelly D -- believing Ducey has the most appeal to independent voters in the state. Donald Trump is, um, less of a Ducey fan. For Democrats, they landed a big recruit with Rep.
Val Demings' candidacy against Florida Sen. Marco Rubio R. A Senate candidacy by Wisconsin's Lt. Mandela Barnes would be something of a coup -- and a good sign for how Democratic candidates see the playing field nationally. Same goes for former Gov. Jay Nixon in Missouri. Prospects for Republican gains in the Senate are not so good. Only nine seats are really seen as 'in play. Ron Johnson promised Wisconsin voters in that he would retire; he may face an uphill climb if he breaks that promise.
Lisa Murkowski of Alaska upsets the right wing but is a reliable vote to organize the Senate, and the GOP will support her. So five Republican seats are at risk. Recruitment of stellar candidates with compelling biographies is crucial to success in states where the Republicans are vulnerable, which is why so much attention will focus on the Republican primaries, especially in Missouri and Ohio.
Four of the 34 seats up for election in changed party control the last time they were up for election. In , special elections took place in Georgia and Arizona. Democrats picked up both seats. The seats are up for election in In —the last time these 34 seats were up for regular election—two seats changed party hands.
The following table shows the presidential election margin of victory in percentage points for each state with a Senate election in In 11 states with Senate seats up for election in , the seat is currently held by a senator of a different party than the governor. Altering the filibuster, which McConnell fears, could give Democrats almost unchecked ability to pass their agenda in both chambers without any Republican support.
On Monday, McConnell backed away from his demand after Sens. Joe Manchin, D-W. The final power-sharing agreement has not yet been reached, but is expected to resemble a resolution reached when the Senate last had an even split. Each of these processes once required a 60 percent majority vote until senators moved in to lower the threshold to 51 votes to advance confirmations for most executive-level and federal judicial nominations. In senators established the same lower threshold to approve Supreme Court nominations.
Austin and Yellen were confirmed by and votes, respectively. As the majority party, Democrats are expected to control the agenda for Senate operations, including policy and oversight committees. Such committees include the Senate Judiciary, charged with confirmation hearings for federal judges and Supreme Court justices, as well as oversight of the Justice Department. On specific legislation, Schumer can also bring measures to the Senate floor for debate that would force members to vote on whether to end debate and move to final passage.
This can be valuable for a majority party even if the bill does not pass, said Josh Chafetz, a professor of law with Georgetown University. Most proposed legislation can be filibustered by members of the minority party, which means 60 members must agree to end debate and move the bill to a final vote.
The use of the Senate filibuster has become increasingly more common since the s and is now a routine way of obstructing legislation. Concerns about increasing partisan gridlock have sparked debate over whether to reform the legislative filibuster, which would give the majority party vast authority to pass bills. Other lawmakers in the past, including Sen. And, by the way, power in the Electoral College is likewise — but less dramatically — tilted in favor of small states, which is a major reason that two of the past six presidential elections have been won by the popular vote loser.
The reason but not the justification for the undemocratic nature of the Senate seems obvious to me at least and goes back to the founding era and the drafting of the Constitution. Before the Constitution, the Articles of Confederation granted few powers to the national government. In order to get the smaller states to agree to a powerful new national government, they had to be reassured that they would not be dominated overmuch by the bigger states.
The Senate was the deal that was necessary to get the small states to overcome their fear of that domination and join the union. In the very short Article V, which lays out the process for amending the Constitution you know: two-thirds of both houses have to agree and then three-quarters of all the states have to ratify there is one provision of the Constitution that the Constitution itself says can never be changed.
But he does call attention, on a statistical level, to how it works in the most recent elections in the form of Republican Senate majorities that rely on popular minorities. See our full republication guidelines for more information.
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